Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Prelims1 Middleweight

Tom Watson vs Stanislav Nedkov

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald ·The SSE Arena, Wembley
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Tom Watson
Stanislav Nedkov
51% 49%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
17-10
Career record
Δ 23 pp
12-2
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Watson: 56 sig / 0 TD · Nedkov: 39 sig / 5 TD
Tom Watson
Stanislav Nedkov
39
Sig strikes landed
52
90
Sig strikes attempted
101
42
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
61s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Tom Watson

"Kong"
17-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W1

Stanislav Nedkov

"Stucky"
12-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
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