Prelims1
Featherweight
Andy Ogle vs Josh Grispi
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
·The SSE Arena, Wembley
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Andy Ogle
Josh Grispi
49%
51%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
24
Age
Δ 0y
24
9-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ogle: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Grispi: 7 sig / 1 TD
Andy Ogle
Josh Grispi
32
Sig strikes landed
35
60
Sig strikes attempted
65
56
Total strikes landed
59
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
218s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Andy Ogle
"The Little Axe"
9-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L3
Josh Grispi
"The Fluke"
14-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—