Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Vaughan Lee vs Motonobu Tezuka

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald ·The SSE Arena, Wembley
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Vaughan Lee
Motonobu Tezuka
18% 82%
Why
30
Age
Δ 5y
26
14-14-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
28-13-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lee: 20 sig / 0 TD · Tezuka: 4 sig / 1 TD
Vaughan Lee
Motonobu Tezuka
30
Sig strikes landed
28
58
Sig strikes attempted
58
50
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
106s
Control time
259s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Vaughan Lee

14-14-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
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W UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
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L UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1

Motonobu Tezuka

28-13-7
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—