Main
Featherweight
Cub Swanson vs Dustin Poirier
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
·The SSE Arena, Wembley
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Dustin Poirier
41%
59%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
32-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
31-10
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swanson: 58 sig / 2 TD ·
Poirier: 58 sig / 2 TD
Cub Swanson
Dustin Poirier
32
Sig strikes landed
40
72
Sig strikes attempted
88
39
Total strikes landed
57
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.6
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
45s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—