🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Renan Barao vs Michael McDonald
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
·The SSE Arena, Wembley
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Michael McDonald
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
26
Age
Δ 4y
22
35-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-4
W4
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Barao: 36 sig / 4 TD ·
McDonald: 26 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Michael McDonald
39
Sig strikes landed
55
122
Sig strikes attempted
134
59
Total strikes landed
60
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
127s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
W4
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
18-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—