Prelims1
Lightweight
Paul Sass vs Danny Castillo
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
·The SSE Arena, Wembley
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Sass
Danny Castillo
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
24
Age
Δ 9y
34
14-3
Career record
Δ 22 pp
17-11
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sass: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Castillo: 38 sig / 4 TD
Paul Sass
Danny Castillo
26
Sig strikes landed
25
68
Sig strikes attempted
52
48
Total strikes landed
41
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
219s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Sass
14-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
L1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—