Prelims1
Featherweight
Diego Nunes vs Nik Lentz
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Diego Nunes
Nik Lentz
38%
62%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
20-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
31-12-2
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nunes: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 56 sig / 10 TD
Diego Nunes
Nik Lentz
39
Sig strikes landed
46
93
Sig strikes attempted
99
58
Total strikes landed
67
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
W1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—