Prelims1
Middleweight
Ronny Markes vs Andrew Craig
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ronny Markes
Andrew Craig
78%
22%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
18-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-4
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Markes: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Craig: 20 sig / 0 TD
Ronny Markes
Andrew Craig
36
Sig strikes landed
24
62
Sig strikes attempted
61
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
312s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ronny Markes
18-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
W2
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—