Prelims1
Lightweight
Edson Barboza vs Lucas Martins
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Lucas Martins
39%
61%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barboza: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Martins: 12 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Lucas Martins
43
Sig strikes landed
40
104
Sig strikes attempted
98
53
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
Blue corner
Lucas Martins
"Mineiro"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24