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Godofredo Pepey vs Milton Vieira

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Godofredo Pepey
Milton Vieira
74% 26%
Why
26
Age
Δ 9y
34
13-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-8-3
L1
Current streak
D1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pepey: 36 sig / 0 TD · Vieira: 17 sig / 5 TD
Godofredo Pepey
Milton Vieira
33
Sig strikes landed
39
74
Sig strikes attempted
78
55
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Godofredo Pepey

13-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
D1

Milton Vieira

"Miltinho"
13-8-3
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—