Main
Lightweight
Thiago Tavares vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Khabib Nurmagomedov
18%
82%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
30-0
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tavares: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 22 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Khabib Nurmagomedov
20
Sig strikes landed
31
60
Sig strikes attempted
88
31
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
66s
Control time
265s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Thiago Tavares
22-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 5
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—