Main
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Ben Rothwell
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Ben Rothwell
13%
87%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
34
Age
Δ 2y
31
18-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
40-14
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gonzaga: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Rothwell: 12 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Ben Rothwell
17
Sig strikes landed
32
41
Sig strikes attempted
60
34
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
18-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—