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Daniel Sarafian vs CB Dollaway

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Daniel Sarafian
CB Dollaway
47% 53%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Sarafian: 38 sig / 0 TD · Dollaway: 62 sig / 2 TD
Daniel Sarafian
CB Dollaway
26
Sig strikes landed
30
50
Sig strikes attempted
66
43
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
231s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Daniel Sarafian

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
W1

CB Dollaway

"The Doberman"
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
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—