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Prelims1 Welterweight

Tyron Woodley vs Jay Hieron

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Jay Hieron
56% 44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 6y
36
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Woodley: 15 sig / 0 TD · Hieron: 0 sig / 0 TD
Tyron Woodley
Jay Hieron
42
Sig strikes landed
36
110
Sig strikes attempted
90
57
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tyron Woodley

"The Chosen One"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L1

Jay Hieron

"The Thoroughbred"
23-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
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