Prelims1
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau vs Evan Dunham
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Evan Dunham
83%
17%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
34-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-10-1
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tibau: 37 sig / 2 TD ·
Dunham: 91 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Evan Dunham
48
Sig strikes landed
45
125
Sig strikes attempted
127
65
Total strikes landed
68
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
98s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gleison Tibau
34-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—