Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Ian McCall
83%
17%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
28
Age
Δ 0y
29
28-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-6-1
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
McCall: 40 sig / 1 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Ian McCall
51
Sig strikes landed
40
131
Sig strikes attempted
107
74
Total strikes landed
62
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
161s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Benavidez
28-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Ian McCall
"Uncle Creepy"
13-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—