Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Fitch
Demian Maia
76%
24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
31-7-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
29-11
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fitch: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Maia: 12 sig / 7 TD
Jon Fitch
Demian Maia
32
Sig strikes landed
19
67
Sig strikes attempted
60
57
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
7.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
162s
Control time
252s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jon Fitch
31-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 5
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W2
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—