Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Antonio Silva
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Antonio Silva
92%
8%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
82"
33
Age
Δ 1y
33
48-19
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Overeem: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Silva: 21 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Antonio Silva
31
Sig strikes landed
13
47
Sig strikes attempted
27
49
Total strikes landed
19
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
273s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W1
Antonio Silva
"Bigfoot"
20-12-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—