Main
Light Heavyweight
Rashad Evans vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Rogerio Nogueira
63%
37%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
33
Age
Δ 3y
37
19-9-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-10
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evans: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Nogueira: 40 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Evans
Rogerio Nogueira
34
Sig strikes landed
33
89
Sig strikes attempted
85
56
Total strikes landed
43
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
189s
Control time
21s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
24-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—