🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Frankie Edgar
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Frankie Edgar
87%
13%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
33-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
23-12-1
W3
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Edgar: 60 sig / 2 TD
Jose Aldo
Frankie Edgar
68
Sig strikes landed
53
185
Sig strikes attempted
161
91
Total strikes landed
80
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
134s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
L2
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
D
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—