Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Sean Spencer
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Natal: 64 sig / 4 TD ·
Spencer: 12 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Sean Spencer
46
Sig strikes landed
38
101
Sig strikes attempted
89
64
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
D
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26