Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader vs Vladimir Matyushenko
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Vladimir Matyushenko
73%
27%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
30
Age
Δ 12y
42
23-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-9
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bader: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Matyushenko: 0 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Vladimir Matyushenko
24
Sig strikes landed
16
50
Sig strikes attempted
39
36
Total strikes landed
30
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
150s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Vladimir Matyushenko
"The Janitor"
27-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—