Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Stumpf
Pascal Krauss
66%
34%
Why
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
11-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stumpf: 63 sig / 2 TD ·
Krauss: 163 sig / 1 TD
Mike Stumpf
Pascal Krauss
54
Sig strikes landed
59
132
Sig strikes attempted
111
69
Total strikes landed
80
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
6.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
239s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Stumpf
11-5
Career record
Height
70"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
Blue corner
L1
Pascal Krauss
"Panzer"
11-3
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—