Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Grant
Matt Wiman
79%
21%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
22-5
Career record
Δ 19 pp
17-10
W3
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Grant: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Wiman: 18 sig / 0 TD
TJ Grant
Matt Wiman
51
Sig strikes landed
43
107
Sig strikes attempted
107
77
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
TJ Grant
22-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
W2
Matt Wiman
17-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—