Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Ricardo Lamas
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
24
Age
Δ 6y
31
17-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-8
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Koch: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Lamas: 32 sig / 2 TD
Erik Koch
Ricardo Lamas
22
Sig strikes landed
21
63
Sig strikes attempted
50
26
Total strikes landed
28
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
61s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
17-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W3
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—