Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Hatsu Hioki
44%
56%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
38-23
Career record
Δ 7 pp
29-11-2
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guida: 26 sig / 3 TD ·
Hioki: 41 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Hatsu Hioki
20
Sig strikes landed
34
60
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
62
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
307s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
L1
Hatsu Hioki
29-11-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—