Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Donald Cerrone
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
25-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-17
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pettis: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 4 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Pettis
Donald Cerrone
28
Sig strikes landed
37
66
Sig strikes attempted
72
38
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W2
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—