Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Nandor Guelmino
97%
3%
Why
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Barnett: 0 sig / 2 TD ·
Guelmino: 0 sig / 0 TD
Josh Barnett
Nandor Guelmino
38
Sig strikes landed
37
98
Sig strikes attempted
63
62
Total strikes landed
47
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
235s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
35-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Barnett vs Cormier
—
W
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
Nandor Guelmino
"The Hun"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Age
37