Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Mike Kyle
96%
4%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
43-6-2
Career record
Δ 25 pp
22-14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mousasi: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Kyle: 7 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Mike Kyle
42
Sig strikes landed
44
111
Sig strikes attempted
102
64
Total strikes landed
63
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
188s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
D
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
L
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Kyle
"MAK"
22-14-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
L
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 9
—