Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Kennedy
Trevor Smith
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-11
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Kennedy: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Smith: 14 sig / 3 TD
Tim Kennedy
Trevor Smith
24
Sig strikes landed
25
53
Sig strikes attempted
51
44
Total strikes landed
38
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
205s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Kennedy
18-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs Kenne…
—
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—
L
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
L1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—