Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Pat Healy
Kurt Holobaugh
50%
50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
26
W5
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Healy: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Holobaugh: 28 sig / 0 TD
Pat Healy
Kurt Holobaugh
39
Sig strikes landed
35
99
Sig strikes attempted
82
61
Total strikes landed
48
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
235s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
35-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs Kenne…
—
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
Blue corner
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26