Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
KJ Noons
Ryan Couture
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
13-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Noons: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Couture: 44 sig / 0 TD
KJ Noons
Ryan Couture
54
Sig strikes landed
64
138
Sig strikes attempted
138
65
Total strikes landed
69
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
KJ Noons
"King"
13-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
L
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
Blue corner
W3
Ryan Couture
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs Kenne…
—
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 19
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—