Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roger Gracie
Anthony Smith
29%
71%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
9-2
Career record
Δ 18 pp
39-22
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gracie: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Smith: 19 sig / 0 TD
Roger Gracie
Anthony Smith
15
Sig strikes landed
28
44
Sig strikes attempted
55
31
Total strikes landed
36
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
214s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
57%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roger Gracie
9-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs Kenne…
—
L
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Rousey vs Kaufman
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—