Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Gurgel
Adriano Martins
17%
83%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jorge Gurgel
Adriano Martins
20
Sig strikes landed
38
55
Sig strikes attempted
72
35
Total strikes landed
52
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
152s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jorge Gurgel
14-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—
L
Strikeforce - Houston
—
Blue corner
Adriano Martins
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30