Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Ed Herman
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
W2
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Souza: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Herman: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Ed Herman
39
Sig strikes landed
37
101
Sig strikes attempted
77
66
Total strikes landed
52
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
272s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Rousey vs Kaufman
—
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
L
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
Blue corner
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32