Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Estevan Payan
Michael Bravo
68%
32%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Estevan Payan
Michael Bravo
65
Sig strikes landed
63
155
Sig strikes attempted
153
84
Total strikes landed
86
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
63s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Estevan Payan
"El Terrible"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
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Blue corner
Michael Bravo
0-0
Career record