Prelims2
Featherweight
Leonard Garcia vs Max Holloway
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leonard Garcia
Max Holloway
11%
89%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
34
Age
Δ 12y
21
18-14-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
28-9
L3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Garcia: 89 sig / 2 TD ·
Holloway: 120 sig / 0 TD
Leonard Garcia
Max Holloway
44
Sig strikes landed
64
203
Sig strikes attempted
159
55
Total strikes landed
75
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.90
9s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Leonard Garcia
"Bad Boy"
18-14-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W2
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—