Prelims2
Flyweight
Chris Cariaso vs John Moraga
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
John Moraga
39%
61%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
18-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-7
W3
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Cariaso: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Moraga: 26 sig / 2 TD
Chris Cariaso
John Moraga
37
Sig strikes landed
43
85
Sig strikes attempted
94
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
114s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
W1
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—