Back to UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Philip De Fries vs Todd Duffee

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Philip De Fries
Todd Duffee
62% 38%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
13-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
9-4
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
De Fries: 7 sig / 1 TD · Duffee: 20 sig / 0 TD
Philip De Fries
Todd Duffee
38
Sig strikes landed
17
89
Sig strikes attempted
59
66
Total strikes landed
29
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
235s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Philip De Fries

13-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1

Todd Duffee

9-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—