Back to UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Prelims1 Lightweight

Melvin Guillard vs Jamie Varner

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Jamie Varner
56% 44%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
32-19-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-12-1
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guillard: 57 sig / 0 TD · Varner: 32 sig / 7 TD
Melvin Guillard
Jamie Varner
41
Sig strikes landed
42
92
Sig strikes attempted
90
49
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
59s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Melvin Guillard

"The Young Assassin"
32-19-2 (3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
L1

Jamie Varner

21-12-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—