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Mike Rio vs John Cofer

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Mike Rio
John Cofer
52% 48%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
29
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Rio: 30 sig / 4 TD · Cofer: 31 sig / 0 TD
Mike Rio
John Cofer
42
Sig strikes landed
35
84
Sig strikes attempted
85
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mike Rio

"The Wolverine"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L1

John Cofer

"The Potter"
8-5
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
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