Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Prelims2 Flyweight

Jared Papazian vs Tim Elliott

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jared Papazian
Tim Elliott
58% 42%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
20-14
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-15-1
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Papazian: 36 sig / 0 TD · Elliott: 36 sig / 7 TD
Jared Papazian
Tim Elliott
60
Sig strikes landed
53
136
Sig strikes attempted
132
73
Total strikes landed
71
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
94s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jared Papazian

"The Jackhammer"
20-14 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
Blue corner
L1

Tim Elliott

22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—