Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Reuben Duran vs Hugo Viana

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Reuben Duran
Hugo Viana
62% 38%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
12-7-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
9-4
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Duran: 8 sig / 0 TD · Viana: 22 sig / 0 TD
Reuben Duran
Hugo Viana
58
Sig strikes landed
55
131
Sig strikes attempted
128
70
Total strikes landed
62
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
219s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Reuben Duran

12-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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L UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W1

Hugo Viana

"Wolverine"
9-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
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