Main
Featherweight
Dustin Poirier vs Jonathan Brookins
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Jonathan Brookins
90%
10%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
30-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
16-11
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Poirier: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Brookins: 26 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Jonathan Brookins
42
Sig strikes landed
28
76
Sig strikes attempted
78
66
Total strikes landed
50
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
201s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
L1
Jonathan Brookins
16-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—