Prelims1
Welterweight
Mike Pyle vs James Head
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
James Head
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-4
W2
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pyle: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Head: 13 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pyle
James Head
26
Sig strikes landed
19
58
Sig strikes attempted
52
41
Total strikes landed
29
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
W2
James Head
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—