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Main Heavyweight

Pat Barry vs Shane del Rosario

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Shane del Rosario
37% 63%
Why
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
8-8
Career record
Δ 29 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Barry: 11 sig / 0 TD · del Rosario: 14 sig / 1 TD
Pat Barry
Shane del Rosario
22
Sig strikes landed
26
37
Sig strikes attempted
38
35
Total strikes landed
39
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
89s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Pat Barry

"HD"
8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
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L UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
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W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
L1

Shane del Rosario

11-3
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—