Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Main Welterweight

Colton Smith vs Mike Ricci

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Colton Smith
Mike Ricci
50% 50%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
25
Age
Δ 1y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 15 sig / 7 TD · Ricci: 9 sig / 0 TD
Colton Smith
Mike Ricci
35
Sig strikes landed
37
70
Sig strikes attempted
78
45
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
119s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Colton Smith

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Mike Ricci

"The Martian"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27