Main
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson vs Matt Mitrione
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Matt Mitrione
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 9"
82"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
23-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nelson: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Mitrione: 13 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Matt Mitrione
23
Sig strikes landed
34
53
Sig strikes attempted
67
35
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.70
114s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Mitrione
12-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—