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Prelims1 Lightweight

Vinc Pichel vs Rustam Khabilov

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Vinc Pichel
Rustam Khabilov
25% 75%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pichel: 0 sig / 0 TD · Khabilov: 13 sig / 5 TD
Vinc Pichel
Rustam Khabilov
31
Sig strikes landed
40
73
Sig strikes attempted
81
46
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
110s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Vinc Pichel

"From Hell"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Rustam Khabilov

"Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26