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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Johnny Bedford vs Marcos Vinicius

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale ·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Johnny Bedford
Marcos Vinicius
67% 33%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
22-13-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-11-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bedford: 34 sig / 1 TD · Vinicius: 4 sig / 0 TD
Johnny Bedford
Marcos Vinicius
54
Sig strikes landed
46
89
Sig strikes attempted
126
74
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.80
Knockdowns
0.10
253s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
43%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Johnny Bedford

"Brutal"
22-13-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
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Blue corner
W1

Marcos Vinicius

"Vina"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
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